From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
The dollar devaluation has seen revenue loss incurred by state-run oil firms on fuel sales trimming to about Rs 96 crore per day.
US sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil companies are expected to impact Reliance Industries' crude imports from Russia, while state-run refiners may continue purchases through intermediary traders for now.
This is the second hike in excise duty in less than two weeks as the government looks to make use of the slump in oil prices to shore up resources.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
The trade relationship between India and the United States has been strained by the imposition of 25% tariff by the US on Indian goods.
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
India responds to US President Trump's claim that PM Modi assured him of halting Russian oil imports, stating it is diversifying energy sources to meet market conditions and safeguard consumer interests.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Higher discounts on crude oil offered by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to wean India away from Russian crude may soon see Indian refiners ramping up purchases from the Gulf nation, officials at multiple refiners said. They also pointed to the recent agreement on trade settlement in national currencies signed between India and the UAE as a reason for this. "While discussions are underway, the UAE has offered discounts on crude, which will be more than that of the current level of Russian discounts.
India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, has conveyed to OPEC countries its concern over high oil prices that are threatening to impact the nascent economic recovery after the devastating pandemic. New Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has made phone calls to key OPEC nations to convey the desire for an affordable price for consumers. After calling his counterparts in Qatar and the UAE, he called Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kingpin Saudi Arabia on Thursday evening.
CAD, which is the difference between outflow and inflow of foreign currency, touched a historic high of 6.7 per cent in the third quarter.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
Crude oil price of $50 a barrel in the international market would pull down India's GDP growth by 0.4 per cent and push up inflation by 1.5 per cent, a FICCI study has said.
The Indian government is dealing with the matter having in mind the national interests of this country in the first place, he said.
India is the 4th largest oil consumer after the US, China and Japan.
With Iran reaching an agreement on its nuclear programme, India is expected to be one of the major gainers.
OPEC, which has oil reserves that constitute 80 percent of the total global reserves, is unwilling to increase output to bring down oil prices. This makes OPEC too responsible for the rising oil prices, apart from the weak dollar. OPEC has said that world oil demand this year is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels daily to an average of 87 million barrels per day. As OPEC's output remains insufficient to cover rising demand from Asian region, oil prices will tend to rise.
A fall in crude oil price and Aramco's $75 billion annual dividend commitment may have delayed Saudi company picking a stake in Reliance Industries Ltd's oil-to-chemical unit (O2C), research firm Jefferies said. Richest Indian Mukesh Ambani had in August 2019 announced talks for the sale of a 20 per cent stake in the O2C business, which comprises its twin oil refineries at Jamnagar in Gujarat and petrochemical assets, to the world's largest oil exporter. The deal was to conclude by March 2020 but has been delayed for reasons not disclosed by either company.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent in May on easing prices of food articles and fuel, and experts said geopolitical tensions could push up prices.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, in July bought $2.8 billion worth of crude oil from Russia, second only to China which remains the largest importer of Russian oil, a report said. Russia emerged as India's biggest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, after Russian oil was available on discount following some European nations shunning purchases from Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Leading industrialist, Mukesh Ambani,on Friday said the trend of rising energy prices is a matter of great concern and that it could rise further to three-digits going forward.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
The government on Friday slapped an export tax on petrol, diesel and jet fuel (ATF) while also joining nations like the UK in imposing a windfall tax on crude oil produced locally. A Rs 6 per litre tax on export of petrol and ATF and Rs 13 per litre tax on export of diesel is effective from July 1, finance ministry notifications showed. Additionally, a Rs 23,250 per tonne tax was levied on crude oil produced domestically.
Trump also called upon China, France, and Japan, among others, to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has not closed the Strait. It remains open; however, due to current conditions and circumstances, ships are unable to pass through the Hormuz. Otherwise, Iran never wanted the Strait to be closed or blocked, the supreme leader's representative said.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
India plans to release about 5 million barrels of crude oil from its emergency stockpile in tandem with the US, Japan and other major economies to cool prices, a top government official said on Tuesday. India stores about 38 million barrels of crude oil in underground caverns at three locations on the east and west coast. Of this, about 5 million barrels will be released, starting as early as 7-10 days, the official, who wished not to be named said.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, spent 112.5 billion euro (about Rs 1.5 lakh crore) on buying crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said on Thursday. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) released a report on payments to Russia for fossil fuels since February 24, 2022. "According to our estimates, since the beginning of the war, Russia earned EUR 835 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports," it said.
Rising crude oil prices along with hardening interest rates in the domestic market have taken a toll on India Inc's growth outlook in the first quarter of the current fiscal.
'Crude oil prices are around $66-67 per barrel now but could fall to $55-60 if global disturbances ease.'
In a first, Indian oil public sector undertakings (PSUs) finalised a one-year contract to import around 2.2 million tonnes (mt) of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US. The LPG import deal comes at a time when negotiations for an India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) are gathering steam. Earlier in the month, US President Donald Trump had said Washington and New Delhi were "pretty close" to reaching a fair trade deal.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified sharply with attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf, even as US President Donald Trump said he had cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against targeting Iran's key South Pars Gas Field.
Communist Party India on Thursday asked the government and the public sector oil companies to share the burden of the surge in crude oil prices and expressed the desire to be consulted before any final decision on fuel pricing is taken.
India is deeply concerned over the spike in the price of oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it is "breaking our back," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said. Addressing a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after holding bilateral talks, Jaishankar on Tuesday said there is a very deep concern among developing countries about how their energy needs are addressed. Speaking about the Ukraine war, he said: "We have taken the position privately, publicly, confidentially and consistently that this conflict is not in anybody's interest."
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